White Sox target rare sweep at Fenway
Baseball Betting Lines
09/05/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After putting what could be the final nail in the coffin in regards to the Boston Red Sox' playoff hopes with Saturday's performance, the Chicago White Sox now set their sights on earning their first series sweep in Fenway Park in 19 years when they take the field this afternoon.
Chicago took both ends of yesterday's doubleheader between these teams by identical 3-1 scores, with the two losses moving Boston 7 1/2 games behind Tampa Bay for the lead in the American League Wild Card standings with under a month to go in the regular season.
The White Sox received terrific starting pitching in both contests. John Danks (13-9) held Boston to a run and six hits over seven innings of work in the opener, while Gavin Floyd (10-11) yielded just one run and five hits through six frames in game two to help Chicago register its fifth straight win on its current road trip.
Bobby Jenks closed out both wins for the White Sox, tossing a scoreless ninth in game one and retiring all four batters he faced in the nightcap.
Chicago banged out 13 hits in taking the opener, with Paul Konerko going 3- for-4 with two runs scored to lead the way. Carlos Quentin was the hitting star in the second test, delivering a double and a triple and crossing the plate twice.
Former Red Sox great Manny Ramirez, acquired by Chicago in a waiver claim from the Dodgers on Monday, served as the White Sox' designated hitter in both games and went 3-for-8 over the course of the twinbill.
The White Sox closed within 3 1/2 games of first-place Minnesota in the AL Central race with Saturday's results and will be shooting for their first road sweep of Boston since July 27-28, 1991.
"If you're not winning the other games, when you play the Twins it's not going to matter," said Jenks. "It doesn't seem like they're going to lose any time soon either."
The White Sox, who had last won a series in Fenway Park back in 2004, have now prevailed in six of their last seven matchups with Boston dating back to last season.
Chicago turns to Mark Buehrle this afternoon in hopes of continuing its winning ways. The steady veteran owns a 12-10 record with a respectable 3.95 earned run average over 27 starts this season, but hasn't been able to pick up a win in either of his last two outings.
Buehrle allowed three runs in a six-inning no-decision this past Monday in Cleveland, five days after the left-hander was reached for four runs and walked four over seven frames in a home loss to Baltimore on August 25.
The four-time All-Star is 6-5 with a 4.43 ERA in 14 lifetime appearances (13 starts) against Boston and 3-2 in four career trips to the Fenway Park mound. Buehrle has lost in each of his past two starts at the historic venue, however, including a lopsided defeat in 2008 in which he was tagged for seven runs and 11 hits in only 4 2/3 innings of work.
Boston mustered only seven hits in the opener and six in the nightcap and has now dropped five of its last seven games. Marco Scutaro drove in both of the Red Sox' runs on the day with a pair of RBI singles.
"We're in a tough spot for sure," said starting pitcher John Lackey, who surrendered three runs (one earned) over seven innings in losing game two. "We're in a tough division with two real quality teams in front of us. We have to keep battling the rest of the way. It's frustrating."
Josh Beckett has endured his share of frustration during what's been a subpar and injury-plagued season for the Red Sox hurler. The right-hander enters today's assignment with a 6.21 ERA over 16 starts in 2010 and has let up six runs or more in three of his past five times out.
Beckett has been significantly better as of late, however. After halting a three-start winless skid by limiting Seattle to three runs and fanning seven over 6 1/3 innings on August 25, the former World Series MVP allowed three runs -- two earned -- through seven frames of Tuesday's start at Baltimore. He did end up with a loss in that game, though, as Boston fell by a 5-2 count.
The 30-year-old does sport a 4-1 lifetime record along with a 3.72 ERA over six meetings with the White Sox, although the lone loss took place in his only start against the club last season.
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Horse Betting
(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).
The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.
"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."
Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.
"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."
When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:
CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.
DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.
PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.
You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.
"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."
Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.
(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)
Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."
But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."
Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."
Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."
All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.
In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.
"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."
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