Baseball Betting

Rockies continue late playoff push against Reds

Baseball Betting Lines

09/08/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With the Colorado Rockies making a belated push for a playoff spot, Carlos Gonzalez has been enhancing his credentials for a possible National League MVP Award with his performance over the past few weeks.

Gonzalez puts a career-best 15-game hitting streak on the line and the resurgent Rockies set their sights on a sixth consecutive win when they continue a four-game series with the suddenly-slumping Cincinnati Reds tonight at Coors Field.

Colorado has vaulted itself back into the NL postseason picture by winning 11 of its last 16 contests, including the first two tests of this set. The Rockies, who returned home off a critical three-game sweep at NL West-leading San Diego over the weekend, are currently 4 1/2 games back the Padres in the division standings and trail Atlanta by the same amount for the lead in the league's Wild Card race.

Gonzalez has certainly played a big part in Colorado's recent roll. The standout outfielder is batting a scorching .525 (31-for-59) with seven home runs and 21 RBI during his tear and belted a three-run homer in the first inning that helped the Rockies to a 4-3 triumph over the reeling Reds last night.

"I feel good. I think I'm seeing the ball really well," Gonzalez said afterward. "I'm just trying to take advantage of every situation so I can help the ball club win."

Gonzalez has made himself a serious threat for the NL's Triple Crown in the process. The 24-year-old tops the Senior Circuit in both batting average (.340) and RBI (100) and trails St. Louis' Albert Pujols by three homers for the lead in that category.

Miguel Olivo added three hits, including an RBI double, to Tuesday's triumph, while rookie pitcher Jhoulys Chacin (8-9) held Cincinnati's potent offense to two runs over the first six innings.

The Reds closed within 4-3 on Jonny Gomes' solo homer off reliever Rafael Betancourt in the eighth, but Colorado closer Huston Street pitched a scoreless ninth to nail down the Rockies' eighth straight win over Cincinnati at Coors Field. The Reds haven't prevailed in Denver since August 22, 2008.

Although Cincinnati did take two of three matchups from the Rockies in Ohio back in July, Colorado is now 17-3 over its last 20 tilts against the Reds following yesterday's result.

The loss was the third in a row and fourth in five outings for the NL Central- leading Reds, who were still able to maintain a six-game advantage on second- place St. Louis after the Cardinals fell to Milwaukee on Tuesday. Drew Stubbs paced Cincinnati with two hits and a pair of RBI in last night's setback.

"We had a few opportunities with runners on base," said Cincinnati manager Dusty Baker. "Fortunately for us, we didn't lose any ground (to the Cardinals)."

Baker will hand the ball to the usually-reliable Bronson Arroyo in hopes of bouncing back tonight. The long-haired veteran is in a bit of rut of his own, having lost two straight starts after besting the Dodgers on August 22 to claim his 14th victory of the season.

Arroyo didn't pitch badly in either defeat, yielding three runs and just five hits over seven innings against the Chicago Cubs on August 28 and allowing three runs in six frames at St. Louis this past Friday. The Reds lost both games by 3-2 scores.

The 33-year-old did beat the Rockies in Cincinnati on July 16 by tossing seven innings of two-run ball, improving his lifetime record to 2-2 with a 3.78 earned run average in nine games (seven starts) against Colorado.

Gonzalez has had success against the Reds right-hander, however, having collected four hits in eight lifetime at-bats off Arroyo.

Aaron Cook takes the mound for Colorado for his second start upon returning from a month-long stint on the disabled list due to a sprained right toe. The right-hander pitched very well in his comeback effort, limiting San Diego to two runs and just four hits over 6 1/3 innings to pick up a win at Petco Park on Friday.

The victory was Cook's first since he fired seven shutout innings to best the Reds on July 18. The sinker specialist is 3-0 with a 4.34 ERA in nine career meetings with Cincinnati, eight of which have been starts.

Cook has struggled in each of his past two Coors Field assignments, however, having surrendered a total of 10 runs and 14 hits in just 5 1/3 innings in back-to-back losses to Pittsburgh (July 28) and San Francisco (Aug. 3).


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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

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