Road-weary Phils return home to host Mets
Baseball Betting Lines
07/03/2009 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Philadelphia Phillies limp back home tied atop the NL East after a dreadful road trip. Tonight, they try to improve upon their horrific play in front of their own fans when they open a three-game series against the New York Mets at Citizens Bank Park.
Before the Phillies embarked on their recent nine-game trek, they had been an incredible 23-9 away from home. However, after losing six of nine on the trip, including an ugly three-game sweep at the hands of the Atlanta Braves, the Phillies find themselves tied with the Florida Marlins for first place in the division with the Mets just a game back and the Braves only two behind.
Philadelphia fell for the 12th time in its last 15 tries on Thursday, falling 5-2 to the Braves.
The Phillies, who managed just seven runs in the sweep by the Braves, have been awful offensively, as Jimmy Rollins' season-long slump culminated with an 0-for-28 stint that was snapped in Thursday's loss with the former NL MVP finishing 2-for-4. Ryan Howard has also had a tough go of it of late with just one home run in his last 14 games.
Going home, though, may not cure Philadelphia's woes, as the Phillies are a dreadful 13-22 this season at home, where they will play their next 10 games.
As if things were not bad enough, the Phillies turn tonight to a pitcher in Rodrigo Lopez, who has not made a major league start since July 26, 2007 when he was with Colorado.
Lopez, a two-time 15-game winner for the Baltimore Orioles, endured Tommy John surgery shortly thereafter and was sidelined all of last season. This year in 13 starts for Triple-A Lehigh Valley, Lopez was 5-4 with a 3.91 ERA.
The Mets, meanwhile, saved themselves from a crushing loss at the hands of the Pittsburgh Pirates on Thursday, before finally pulling out a 9-8 decision in 10 innings at PNC Park.
New York fell behind 5-0, but scored the next eight runs to take an 8-5 advantage into the ninth. However, the usually reliable Francisco Rodriguez gave it all back, as the Pirates scored three times in the ninth to send the game to extra innings.
Fernando Tatis, who finished 3-for-4 with a two-run homer and scored four times, was hit by a Matt Capps pitch with two down in the 10th, stole second, then motored home as Ryan Church bounced a base hit up the middle to put the Mets ahead by a run.
Rodriguez (2-2) then sent the Bucs down in order to finish the game.
"I'm the kind of guy that if I make a mess, I clean it up," Rodriguez said. "I felt really frustrated that I didn't get the job done in the ninth, then we score and I go back out there in the 10th."
New York's win was its second straight following a five-game slide.
The Mets will hand the ball tonight to Livan Hernandez, who is 5-3 with a 4.04 ERA. Hernandez lost his second straight start on Sunday against the New York Yankees, as he allowed three runs and three hits in seven innings.
Hernandez has faced the Phillies 24 times and is 10-8 in those contests with a 3.36 ERA.
New York has won four of its seven matchups with the Phillies after winning 11 of the 18 meetings a year ago.
Wimbledon, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The incomparable Williams sisters, Serena and Venus, will appear in their fourth Wimbledon doubles final on Saturday. The fourth-seeded sisters drilled a top-seeded tandem of Zimbabwe's Cara
<< Cubs' Zambrano takes mound against Milwaukee
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Carlos Zambrano takes aim at his first win in five starts
this afternoon when the Chicago Cubs continue their four-game series with the
Milwaukee Brewers at Wrigley Field.
Zambrano was roughed up by the Chicago White S
<< Braves try to stay hot in opener vs. Nats
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Atlanta Braves try to push their season-high winning
streak to five games this evening when they open a three-game series with the
lowly Washington Nationals at Nationals Park.
Although it still sits in fourth pl
<< Ramirez, Marlins host Pirates in Miami
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Hanley Ramirez will try to stretch his franchise-record RBI
streak to 11 games this evening when the Florida Marlins begin a three-game
series with the Pittsburgh Pirates at Land Shark Stadium.
Florida, meanwhile, has
<< Yankees, Blue Jays open key series with weekday matinee
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New York Yankees will try to start a new winning streak
this afternoon, when they play the first of four straight games versus the
American League East-rival Toronto Blue Jays in the Bronx.
New York had a seven-game wi
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Seattle Mariners enter the final leg of a challenging road trip with tonight's opener of a three-game series with the American League East-leading Boston Red Sox from Fenway Park. The surprising Mariners have acquitte
Cardinals send Pineiro to hill in Cincinnati >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Joel Pineiro hopes for some run support tonight when the
St. Louis Cardinals begin a three-game set with the Cincinnati Reds at Great
American Ball Park.
Pineiro lost for the ninth time in his last 11 starts on Sun
Rays ride hot streak into Arlington >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Tampa Bay Rays take their hot streak into the Lone
Star State, where the defending American League champions will start up an
intriguing three-game series with the Texas Rangers this evening.
With wins in 15 of their
Santana returns to face Orioles >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim have been able to
rebound from a rough beginning to the season. The team is hoping one of its
most talented pitchers will be able to do the same in tonight's matchup with
the Baltimore Orio
Greinke hopes to slow down White Sox >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - There haven't been many pitchers who have slowed down the
Chicago White Sox as of late, but Zack Greinke has shown in the past to be
quite capable of such a task.
The Kansas City Royals ace will take the mound in tonight
Work left to do: Villanova, Syracuse, DePaul, West Virginia, Providence
Notre Dame and Louisville appear to have done enough to make the move, so we'll make them locks. The Cardinals, despite a modest RPI, are trending way up and have clinched at least a tie for third in the Big East, which should be more than enough with their pair of big road wins. Villanova got back to .500 and gets back to more solid footing. Syracuse got a very important road win and crippled a fellow contender in the process. West Virginia's fate could be in its hands Tuesday at Pitt.
Work left to do:
Villanova [18-9 (7-7), RPI: 21, SOS: 5] Pounded Rutgers to get back to .500. If Cats can get their last two (at UConn, vs. Syracuse), that should be enough with strong computer numbers and a host of wins away from The Pavilion. The Cats have beaten Texas and swept the Big 5 (never easy in Philly), but have a couple of losses to bubble teams (Xavier, Drexel), too. I still think they'll be OK, possibly even at 8-8.
Syracuse [20-8 (9-5), RPI: 53, SOS: 62] History says 10 wins will be plenty, but it might be hard for the Orange to get that last one with a final two vs. G'town, which is trying to win the league title, and at Villanova, which will be desperate for a W. The relative lack of nonconference heft and the weak computer numbers are still concerns, but the Orange have won four in a row and got a very, very big win at Providence on Saturday.
DePaul [16-12 (8-7), RPI: 54, SOS: 18] Beat Cincy and should get past South Florida to get to 9-7, but then what? They have beaten Kansas and Cal (right after the DeVon Hardin injury) earlier this season, but also have lost to Bradley and Purdue, among others. They'll likely need a couple of BE tourney wins, too, but we'll see ...
West Virginia [19-7 (8-6), RPI: 58, SOS: 125] The game at Pitt on Tuesday night could decide the Mountaineers' fate (barring a deep tournament run). They can still get to 9-7 in the Big East without it by beating Cincinnati, but the nine wins would be against UConn, Villanova, St. John's, South Florida, DePaul, Rutgers, Seton Hall twice and the Bearcats. Beating bubble foes is fine, but where's the beef? Outside of beating PG-less UCLA in nonconference play (still a top quality win), there's not a lot to fall back on (besides maybe NC State). WVU vs. Syracuse would be an interesting debate, as the teams don't play in the Big East regular season. WVU has the best win, but Cuse has played the much better schedule.
Providence [17-10 (7-7), RPI: 70, SOS: 33] The Friars likely saw their at-large hopes die at home in the four-point loss to Syracuse, barring an unexpected run to the Big East semis or more. The RPI, bad already, won't be helped by playing St. John's and South Florida in the final two league games.
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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?
The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.
While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.
For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.
1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.
2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.
How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.
Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.
Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.
How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).
Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.
Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.
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